As the Millennial population ages over the next five years, there will be a significant increase in first-time home buyers, says industry consultant Charles C. Shinn Jr., Ph.D. Millennials have been postponing their housing and family decisions so there will be a lag from historic norms, “but [they] will follow the historical patterns, just delayed,” says Shinn. The strength of the large single-family home, custom-home, and second-home markets can be explained by the size of the population between 45 and 51 years old, which is the bridge between baby boomers and Generation X. Shinn predicts a substantial dropoff of this population in five to six years, and subsequently a drop in demand for these products.
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